ARES is a risk management leader across multiple Defense programs, providing niche expertise to the Missile Defense Agency, the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the U.S. Navy, the U.S. Air Force, and the Pentagon, through direct contracts and through subcontracts to some of the most prominent Defense contractors, including Boeing, Lockheed Martin, Booz Allen Hamilton, ITT Systems, and Northrop Grumman.

Representative projects include:

  • Developed leading edge methodologies to conduct capabilities-based warfighting assessments and to quantify risks associated with capability gaps.  ARES developed a risk framework that characterizes risks of the alternative courses of action and developed packages describing portfolio investment options.  ARES generated requirements for an information architecture to provide knowledge management (knowledge engineering) benefits: capturing and providing access to essential data, analyses, and bases of decisions throughout the process.  ARES provided process development and redesign and performed review and analysis of a wide variety of studies, reports, and briefings.  ARES used its Capabilities-Based Assessment Methodology (CBAM), using the process sequence model (PSM) approach to understanding and evaluating operational risk, to provide business case analysis.  Graphically mapped capabilities in a process map and evaluated risks based on the probabilities of success for each given task as well as the consequences of success or failure in any given mission area or capability.
  • Performed a Weapon System Safety Assessment (WSSA) to assess and quantify the peacetime risk of plutonium dispersal selected aircraft as a result of abnormal mechanical, thermal, and/or electrical environments.  ARES applied sophisticated engineering modeling to simulate abnormal environments and modeled the consequence of aircraft impact and subsequent fire damage for multiple aircraft types with various fuel and weapon configurations, explosive munitions blasts, and enclosed fires.  ARES conducted a thorough Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) using a hybridized event tree method containing both deterministic and probabilistic components.  ARES performed an uncertainty analysis, accounting for uncertainties from several sources, including deterministic structural, thermal, and nuclear weapon response models as well as initiating event frequencies and event inputs.  These PRAs were among the largest in the world, and reserved for programs of extreme complexity and national security interest.
  • Developed a risk assessment methodology to identify capability shortfalls, potential trade space areas, and “what-if” excursions.  ARES’ process prioritized and ranked the risks associated with critical mission areas and the underlying tasks that affect these risks, ultimately informing cost benefit analysis of Courses of Action for capability based budget decisions.
  • Led Risk Management on the Air Force Space and Missile Center Spacelift Range Systems Contract (SLRSC), a $1.3 Billion effort over 10 years to modernize, automate, and sustain the Launch and Test Range System (LTRS).
  • Created, implemented, and manages an integrated Risk Management process for a major DoD contract. This CMMI Level III process included development and implementation of a risk Management database.  It has received the Colorado Performance Excellence (CPEx) award.