Quantitative Risk Management

ARES leverages our significant expertise in the development and application of quantitative risk management best practices to improve safety and quality, minimize schedule delays and budget overruns, reduce change orders, and optimize operational performance and productivity across all of our projects.

In delivering our solutions, we identify sources of risk and use technical, mathematical, and scientific methods to quantify and mitigate those risks. ARES’ key differentiator is our simultaneous focus on technical, cost, and schedule risk across all of our engagements. ARES specializes in highly technical, highly complex projects where there are significant technical risks to employees, enterprises, the environment, and critical infrastructure. Whether in the nuclear, space, or defense sectors, the potential consequences of the technical risks that ARES is typically engaged to mitigate span significant economic impact to loss of life.

Examples of our quantitative risk management capabilities are reviewed below.

  • Complex Systems Modeling. ARES has developed over 400 algorithms that predict performance, identify technical risks and vulnerabilities, and determine the most efficient capital allocation for the development of complex systems
  • Decision Analysis. ARES performs risk-based decision analyses, using different decision criteria and numerous analytical tools, to aid key stakeholders in making better-informed decisions. These analyses have enabled our clients to determine the adequacy of financial reserves for nuclear waste remediation, disseminate knowledge seamlessly and securely, and evaluate build vs. buy decisions.
  • Event Tree & Fault Tree Analysis. ARES develops event trees and fault trees and provides a systematic method for investigating accident and/or failure scenarios involving complex systems.  These trees evaluate the pathways leading to failure of a system and the associated risks.
  • Hazards Analysis. ARES’ subject matter experts are skilled at providing systematic identification of hazards within a given operation. Hazard analysis primarily uses a top-down approach to safety, utilizing methods including event tree, fault tree, and FMEA/FMECA analyses.  ARES’ experts analyze and evaluate potential accidents and their associated risks, and then determine the controls necessary to eliminate, control, or mitigate identified hazards.
  • Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA). PRA is a logical, systematic, and comprehensive methodology used to evaluate risks associated with complex technological systems for the purpose of cost-effectively improving their safety and performance.  ARES performs PRAs to assist clients in achieving high reliability and safety standards.
  • Reliability, Availability and Maintainability (RAM) Analysis. ARES’ expertise in the field of RAM Analysis is unparalleled.  RAM analysis is a powerful process which uses failure information from a system’s components in order to develop probability distributions of whether the system will be able to perform to its intended function.  ARES uses RAM analysis to enable client organizations to achieve system designs which simultaneously maximize performance and minimize cost.
  • Risk-Based Schedule Assessment. The goal of these assessments is to find and rank potential risks that may inhibit a project’s intended schedule. To accomplish this, we use our proprietary methodology to obtain schedule task uncertainty information through interviews with client personnel, and from analysis of the logically linked schedule.  This information is used as input to a Monte Carlo analysis which is performed to determine what tasks are the largest contributors to schedule uncertainty.  This information can be used by a project manager to help allocate resources to reduce uncertainty in task durations.
  • Root Cause Analysis (RCA). Root Cause Analysis is an integral part of ARES’ risk management methodology and it is used to evaluate the root causes of hazards and accidents.  To provide our clients with accurate Root Cause Analysis, we use a fine-tuned process developed from significant experience within a variety of projects and fields.
  • Emergency Preparedness. ARES works with companies to prepare, refine, and test emergency preparedness plans and procedures.  ARES helps companies avoid potential financial dilemmas by preparing and planning for disasters ranging from a crippling computer virus, a catastrophic chemical explosion, to an aircraft crash.
  • Six Sigma Analysis. Six Sigma seeks to improve the quality of process outputs by identifying and removing the causes of defects and/or errors and minimizing variability in manufacturing and business processes. ARES integrates risk management methodologies with the Six Sigma process for various clients.